BEKK模型

Thu, 15 Apr 2010 00:00:00 +0000

BEKK模型是目前比较流行的多变量波动性模型，可以看作GARCH模型在多维空间的实现。BEKK模型在应用过程中也有诸多缺点，其中最大的一个不足之处在于模型的待估计参数会随着模型维数的增加指数型增长。然而，这一点肯定会随着计算机的发展而被逐渐克服的。

R软件中提供了mgarch和mgarchBEKK两个包来估计BEKK模型参数。

mgarch包及其示例

# 安装包（如果未安装）
# devtools::install_github("https://github.com/vst/mgarch")

library(mgarch)

## 载入需要的程序包：tseries

## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
## method from
## as.zoo.data.frame zoo

## 载入需要的程序包：mvtnorm

先看mgarch包，该包有三个主要函数：

mvBEKK.sim: 模拟一个MGARCH-BEKK过程
mvBEKK.est: 估计MGARCH-BEKK模型的参数
mvBEKK.diag:对拟合的MGARCH-BEKK模型进行诊断

可以通过以下命令查询相关函数的用法：

?mvBEKK.sim
?mvBEKK.est
?mvBEKK.diag

运行以下命令可以模拟一个MGARCH-BEKK过程：

set.seed(123)
sim = mvBEKK.sim(series.count = 3, T = 1000)

## Class attributes are accessible through following names:
## length series.count order params true.params eigenvalues uncond.cov.matrix white.noise eps cor sd

合并模拟的时间序列：

eps = data.frame(sim$eps[[1]], sim$eps[[2]], sim$eps[[3]]) 
head(eps)

## sim.eps..1.. sim.eps..2.. sim.eps..3..
## 1 0.9472441 1.2177306 0.5491724
## 2 -1.1241768 -0.3366113 -0.6261458
## 3 0.7179649 -0.3272567 1.6880032
## 4 -0.4857962 1.2230006 -1.9563961
## 5 -1.1301479 4.0603942 -1.3856283
## 6 0.2057734 1.1435079 -0.6392246

tail(eps)

## sim.eps..1.. sim.eps..2.. sim.eps..3..
## 995 -1.43678861 -0.8651118 -1.55380698
## 996 -1.10173653 -0.5863329 -1.14479754
## 997 -1.06902893 -0.4398771 -3.08558958
## 998 -0.11478218 0.7226409 -3.00375826
## 999 -1.18562636 2.4487154 -0.04579639
## 1000 0.05764529 -0.2241948 0.86390660

估计模型参数：

est <- mvBEKK.est(eps)

## H IS SINGULAR!...
## H IS SINGULAR!...
## H IS SINGULAR!...

## Warning in mvBEKK.est(eps): negative inverted hessian matrix element

查看估计结果包含哪些信息：

names(est)

## [1] "eps" "series.length" "estimation.time" 
## [4] "total.time" "order" "estimation" 
## [7] "aic" "asy.se.coef" "est.params" 
## [10] "cor" "sd" "H.estimated" 
## [13] "eigenvalues" "uncond.cov.matrix" "residuals"

模型诊断：

mvBEKK.diag(est)

## 	Number of estimated series : 3 
## 	Length of estimated series : 1000 
## 	Estimation Time : 32.41842 
## 	Total Time : 32.98894 
## 	BEKK order : 1 1 
## 	Eigenvalues : 0.8982855 0.5101535 0.4535976 0.3020472 0.2611067 0.2258987 0.1373383 0.05469751 0.05280793 
## 	aic : 4163.509 
## 	unconditional cov. matrix : 2.654942 -0.4582163 0.8566066 -0.4582163 2.38067 0.1093766 0.8566066 0.1093766 2.01 
## 	var(resid 1 ) : 0.999399 
## 	mean(resid 1 ) : -0.03860414 
## 	var(resid 2 ) : 0.9988757 
## 	mean(resid 2 ) : 0.04335019 
## 	var(resid 3 ) : 0.997348 
## 	mean(resid 3 ) : 0.02152967 
## 	Estimated parameters :
## 
## 	C estimates:
## [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,] 0.8909642 0.3328637 0.34152387
## [2,] 0.0000000 0.9827892 0.05270326
## [3,] 0.0000000 0.0000000 1.01236445
## 
## 	ARCH estimates:
## [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,] 0.340809760 0.06992293 0.07918491
## [2,] -0.064873614 0.36049917 0.35553210
## [3,] -0.008381618 -0.06665216 0.50150310
## 
## 	GARCH estimates:
## [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,] -0.3353086 0.37376137 -0.5032390
## [2,] 0.2151724 0.03756262 0.4608374
## [3,] 0.1756196 0.01577004 -0.4594647
## 
## 	asy.se.coef : 
## 
## 	C estimates, standard errors:
## [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,] 0.07738385 0.1351731 0.2359051
## [2,] 0.00000000 0.1141723 0.2671477
## [3,] 0.00000000 0.0000000 0.2311768
## 
## 	ARCH estimates, standard errors:
## [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,] 0.05481912 0.05484527 0.07796872
## [2,] 0.04677913 0.05338068 0.07267995
## [3,] 0.02304154 0.02555282 0.04677987
## 
## 	GARCH estimates, standard errors:
## [,1] [,2] [,3]
## [1,] 0.17105425 0.19123870 0.31018515
## [2,] 0.17509179 0.26972309 0.33665408
## [3,] 0.05380941 0.07028591 0.09210273
## Called from: mvBEKK.diag(est)
## debug: for (i in 1:length(estimation$eps)) {
## plot(estimation$residuals[[i]])
## browser()
## dev.off()
## }
## debug: plot(estimation$residuals[[i]])

## debug: browser()
## debug: dev.off()
## debug: plot(estimation$residuals[[i]])

## debug: browser()
## debug: dev.off()
## debug: plot(estimation$residuals[[i]])

## debug: browser()
## debug: dev.off()

mgarchBEKK包及其示例

# 安装包（如未安装）
# devtools::install_github("https://github.com/vst/mgarchBEKK")

# 加载包
library(mgarchBEKK)
# 模拟mgarchBEKK过程
simulated <- simulateBEKK(2, 1000, c(1,1))

## Class attributes are accessible through following names:
## length series.count order params true.params eigenvalues uncond.cov.matrix white.noise eps cor sd

# 合并模拟数据
simulated <- do.call(cbind, simulated$eps)
# 估计模型
estimated <- BEKK(simulated)

## H IS SINGULAR!...
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## Warning in BEKK(simulated): negative inverted hessian matrix element

# 模型诊断
diagnoseBEKK(estimated)

## 	Number of estimated series : 2000 
## 	Length of estimated series : 1000 
## 	Estimation Time : 3.208226 
## 	Total Time : 3.330154 
## 	BEKK order : 1 1 
## 	Eigenvalues : 0.7940983 0.7122278 0.5839173 0.5353965 
## 	aic : 4614.775 
## 	unconditional cov. matrix : 6.481396 1.496551 1.496551 7.939293 
## 	var(resid 1 ) : 1.000363 
## 	mean(resid 1 ) : -0.007109519 
## 	var(resid 2 ) : 0.9958192 
## 	mean(resid 2 ) : -0.01444951 
## 	Estimated parameters :
## 
## 	C estimates:
## [,1] [,2]
## [1,] 0.9304752 0.4214324
## [2,] 0.0000000 1.6921455
## 
## 	ARCH estimates:
## [,1] [,2]
## [1,] -0.5382996 0.003724502
## [2,] 0.3896205 -0.351431137
## 
## 	GARCH estimates:
## [,1] [,2]
## [1,] 0.3804035 0.5270529
## [2,] -0.2806881 0.6526116
## 
## 	asy.se.coef : 
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## 	C estimates, standard errors:
## [,1] [,2]
## [1,] 0.2069876 0.5373757
## [2,] 0.0000000 0.2889314
## 
## 	ARCH estimates, standard errors:
## [,1] [,2]
## [1,] 0.04044854 0.04641720
## [2,] 0.02825686 0.04050683
## 
## 	GARCH estimates, standard errors:
## [,1] [,2]
## [1,] 0.05265359 0.05895967
## [2,] 0.06856104 0.07941475

## Called from: diagnoseBEKK(estimated)
## debug: dev.off()
## debug: plot(estimation$residuals[[i]])

## debug: browser()
## debug: dev.off()

BEKK on 格物堂

BEKK模型

mgarch包及其示例

mgarchBEKK包及其示例